Alan Gross Trial in Cuba – The side show with an unlikely outcome

This case has received a great amount of press over the past year, reaching fever pitch this week. With the trial now over, there are certain points worth taking note of that will probably decide the outcome for Mr. Gross.


Both Governor Bill Richardson and Hillary Rodham Clinton have stated that they would consider the release of Mr. Gross as a sign from the Cuban Government to ease tension and promote further easing of sanctions. This is exactly what Cuba requires to obvert failure of the Cuban revolution. To be more precise, Cuba needs American travelers, URGENTLY, the anticipated influx of fresh capital being precisely what the Castro brothers need to save their ailing economy. So why have they not released Gross? First of all they need to appease Venezuelan´s who would frown upon an anticipated release of Gross, accusing Cuba of having folded under US pressure. So, we can therefore deduce that the recent court case is nothing more than an elaborate side show designed to promote Cuba´s pseudo sovereignty to those ardent supporters and US foes.


Needless to say, the urgency of receiving US tourists and their guaranteed dollars will outweigh any other at this time in Havana´s political circles.


Once considered in this way, the outcome for Alan Gross is almost certain release, sooner rather than later. A twist to this could be a previously agreed, (remember, the US and Cuba have been in several unprecedented immigration talks of late) after the side show conviction, Gross then being the catalyst for a prisoner swap for the Cuban 5, convicted of spying in Miami in 2001. The release of the Cuban 5 would provide a much needed confidence boost for everyday Cuban´s who increasingly doubt their leaders. The fanfare of their arrival would invariably create a distraction from today´s dire economic situation and also bolster Raul Castro´s presidency at a time when old school Cuban´s lament the departure of his brother Fidel.


The tension surrounding the case is a fabrication of US and Cuban diplomats and, we anticipate that before July, Mr. Gross will be released, as and when Cuba secures a tacit guarantee of an easing in the travel ban (extra cash for the regime) and the caveat of the Cuban 5 back on Cuban soil along with the euphoria the Castro´s will orchestrate around this event.


Nobody should underestimate the Castro´s absolute NEED for a quick solution to the islands dire economic situation. Having Gross as a bargaining chip could be one of history’s unusual milestones that saved the Castro brothers from almost certain failure. Oddly, it is the U.S, the much loathed foe, who finally provides the support needed to extend their legacy into the future.

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